Is Summer in October Here to Stay?

It certainly has been a mild first half of October. In fact, per NWS Upton NY, the avergae temperature departure from normal through the first 13 days of this month is +4.0°F! With that in mind, is this lasting bit of Summer here to stay as we enter the second half of the month and inch our way deeper into Autumn? The plot below represents the 500 mb height field across the CONUS valid at 14 Oct/12z courtesy of UCAR.

In the above plot, you can easily make out the large mid to upper-level ridge of high pressure that extends across the E'rn third of the U.S. with a boundary in place stretching from the Upper Great Lakes S'ward towards the TX coastal region. This is the beginning of the impending pattern change that will arrive in the Northeast this weekend. For example, below, you can see the a GEFS ensmeble interpretation of the 500 mb height field overlayed with surface MSLP (courtesy of course of tropicaltidbits.com).

On Saturday (16 Oct), an area of low pressure will move NE'ward across SE'rn Ontario and into Quebec to our north. A cold front will trail SW'ward from this low pressure system. Showers, downpours, and some storms are expected to be associated with this cold front as it makes its way east across the region. There is the potential for strong winds associated with these storms as the SPC has highlighted with a "Marginal Risk" (level 1/5) for their Day 3 convective outlook. Either way, this will be the start of at least more seasonable mid-October weather for the region.

Above, you can see a 500 mb trough over the NE'rn part of the U.S. Notice the upper-level ridging to our west. This will promote a surface high pressure system to be located over over the Southeast and S'rn Appalachians thanks to downstream upper-level confluence (air coming together at the upper-levels that promotes sinking and thus a surface high). A surface high in this location promotes a cool NW'ly flow into our region. This will help to promote morning lows Monday AM (18 Oct) to be in the 40s inland; maybe cooler in spots if radiational cooling can get going. High temperatures, as seen below, look to only be in the 50s with some locations maybe even cooler.

Now, all this is not to say we are done with 60s and mild weather, but this weekend and into early next week at least will offer a little repreive from this mild to warm pattern. So maybe, sweatah weathah is almost back? Thank you again, for reading. I hope to have another blog post out by early next week. As always, thank you to TropicalTidbits.com for providing such a unique and useful source of available model and observational data. Thank you and have a great weekend and be safe! I hope you enjoy a nice fall scene I captured while walking at Hovey Pond Park in Queensbury NY on 13 Oct! The cooler weather later this weekend should help foliage pop in many of the areas that have seen more patchy colors to date.